While the special election in former Congressman, now HHS Secretary Tom Price’s old district gets all the attention an election getting far less attention is set to occur in KS-4 next Tuesday. The ruby-red seat, vacated by Mike Pompeo, is not expected to change hands.
But, recently unexpected spending from the NRCC on the contest has caused some interest to stir. The Daily Kos notes the GOP is spending $100,000 in the safe seat. They tout the moderate bonafides of their nominee, James Thompson, and how America and the district is turning against Trump.
Of course, this is the Daily Kos and that is the point. Thompson has no shot at winning the seat. His own poll shows it. The GOP is likely trying to run up the score here in preparation for a bad day in GA-6 (at least for the primary).
The NRCC has no reason to worry about dumping $100K in the race precisely because they are sitting on a record haul. Considering what is being spent in GA-6, $100K is not really that big a deal.
But, this is the liberal blogosphere, and they tend not to deal in reality. Accordingly, “Reporter Elena Schneider explains that local Republicans “are fretting that Estes’ margin is closer than expected. One unnamed GOP consultant even says, Kansas should not be in play, but Kansas is in play.”
That is seriously debatable. Thompson’s own poll shows him far behind and worse he has had a fight with the local party to even get $20K in support. If Kansas Democrats are feeling little excitement about their candidate what are the odds he really has strong, grassroots support?
But, if you are the progressive heart of the party and think you have a shot you probably do not have a good sense of local voters opinions. It is true that Democratic early voting has outpaced the GOP’s but this district is so red it would take a lot for a real upset to occur.
Indeed, it may be the candidates that matter more in this race. Ron Estes, the GOP candidate for the seat, has kept a much lower profile than Thompson. He has felt little need to hustle or raise the dough that Thompson is. In other words, Estes knows he can only lose by doing something stupid. Republicans might not show up to vote but they won’t back Thompson unless they are given a reason to do so. Estes is not giving them that reason.
So, for Democrats, the best they can hope to do is have a strong showing here. But, a victory is highly, highly unlikely. You can quote me on that.